#003: 95-5 Rule (Heuristic)
Origin: John Dawes, Ehrenberg Bass Institute of Marketing Science (2021)
Many believe marketing is about persuasion—pushing buyers down a funnel to a purchase.
Not quite.
But it’s understandable why people believe this. There are well-adopted, high-profile marketing models visually designed to look like funnels—these can be misleading.
Most non-marketers (and some marketers) see those models and expect things to work that way. They expect campaigns, content, and ads to convince buyers to purchase a product.
But, in practice, it’s reversed.
Marketers can’t force buyers into the market.
Buyers move into the market based on their needs and circumstances.
For complex B2B products that require business transformation, companies only make a purchase decision every 2–5+ years. They could technically be *in* your market, but not actively comparing products until they have budget, or their current solution stops working for them.
John Dawes’ 95:5 rule states that only 5% of B2B buyers are in the market at any given time. So, 95% are out-of-market—they won’t be ready to buy for months or even years.
What does that mean for marketers?
In addition to reaching the 5% of in-market buyers, sustainable marketing improves future sales potential by making your brand salient for the remaining 95%.
We know that familiar brands are trusted more and have better consideration rates. The key is to be familiar and top-of-mind when your buyers eventually move into the market.
While it's possible to time customer demand, it’s imperfect and unsustainable in the long run.
If a buyer finds out about you once they've already started considering alternatives, you're at a disadvantage—you have a lot of education to do in a short amount of time.
The more you can educate the dormant part of the market and build associations with your features, capabilities, benefits, and POV, the more likely you will create mental availability for your buyers when their circumstances change.
Overall, the 95:5 rule teaches us that:
Most of your marketing efforts should be long-term, evergreen, and programmatic.
People rely on their memories when making purchases, so find ways to enter their heads consistently.
Ad and content creative should be optimized for noticeability and memorability
Marketing must be seen as an investment in making future sales easier because most of your market... isn't *in* the market right now.
I've been lucky enough to be trusted to build marketing programs from scratch that we knew wouldn't have a direct sales impact for months (or years). But it's hard to argue when a prospect says:
"We've listened to your podcast for 1.5 years and read all of your articles. When we finally had budget, you were the first we thought of"
Before I found this framework, I struggled to articulate this market dynamic to executives and get buy-in on long-term programs—which is why I love having this model in my back pocket.
